It's the first real sign of progress in years - and the Trump administration deserves credit for brokering it.

 

2022.02.26 Stand with Ukraine, The White House, Washington, DC USA 057 69079. (Photo: Ted Eytan)

There is no such thing as a perfect ceasefire in a war like the one between Russia and Ukraine.

That is the first thing to remember. It’s also useful to recall that the war between Ukraine and Russia didn’t start with an invasion four years ago. It began in 2014, with Russia’s forcible annexation of Crimea, possibly even earlier.

When two armies have been fighting for years across a long, brutal front, nobody should expect silence to fall all at once. Accusations are bound to fly, as they have. There will be violations. There will be drone incidents, artillery fire, disputed timelines, and each side claiming the other one broke the deal first.

That does not mean a ceasefire is meaningless. A ceasefire signifies a certain political intent. And by that standard, the current three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine is the first real sign of progress in years.

There is cautious optimism. But it is optimism.

And it’s the first positive sign in years.

The Trump administration reportedly helped broker a short pause in fighting between Moscow and Kyiv, tied to a major prisoner exchange. Both sides agreed to the same basic framework. That alone is unusual after years of a war defined by maximalist demands, grinding battlefield losses, and diplomatic dead ends.

“I am pleased to announce that there will be a THREE DAY CEASEFIRE (May 9th, 10th, and 11th) in the War between Russia and Ukraine,” announced U.S. President Donald Trump in a Truth Social post on May 8. “The Celebration in Russia is for Victory Day but, likewise, in Ukraine, because they were also a big part and factor of World War II. This Ceasefire will include a suspension of all kinetic activity, and also a prison swap of 1,000 prisoners from each Country.”

“This request was made directly by me, and I very much appreciate its agreement by President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy,” President Trump added. “Hopefully, it is the beginning of the end of a very long, deadly, and hard fought War. Talks are continuing on ending this Major Conflict, the biggest since World War II, and we are getting closer and closer every day.”

Trump isn’t pretending this is peace — because it isn’t. Russia still has hard-line demands. Ukraine still has every reason to distrust Moscow. The two sides remain miles apart on territory, security guarantees, and the future of the Donbas. Nothing about a three-day pause solves those questions.

But this is how wars often begin to move toward resolution — a prisoner exchange, a temporary halt, a test of whether the other side can keep even a limited promise.

That appears to be what we are seeing now. And the Trump administration deserves credit.

For years, the war in Ukraine has felt stuck in a terrible loop. More weapons. More casualties. More sanctions. More speeches. More declarations that victory was the only possible outcome. But the actual situation on the ground kept getting worse for human beings on both sides of the front.

Now, we are seeing a first glimpse of a pathway out of the killing.

Too many people have treated every call for negotiation as weakness. But there is nothing weak about trying to stop a war. There is nothing unserious about asking whether America’s leverage can be used to produce something besides another year of stalemate.

The prisoner exchange is especially important. A large exchange would give both governments something concrete to show their people. Families get sons, husbands, brothers, and fathers back. Even in the ugliest wars, prisoner swaps can create a tiny habit of negotiation. They establish channels. They create precedent. They prove that both sides can make and keep a limited deal when the incentives line up.

That does not mean Putin has suddenly become trustworthy. He has not. It does not mean Ukraine should let down its guard. It should not. It does not mean peace is around the next, immediate corner.

But it does mean something has shifted.

For the first time in a long time, the conversation is not only about escalation. It is also about whether the war can be slowed, paused, and maybe, eventually, ended.

Trump has long argued that this war needed a negotiated path, not just open-ended funding and vague hopes of victory. His critics mocked that position as simplistic. But the basic instinct — that the United States should use its power to force movement toward an off-ramp — looks more serious today than it did a week ago.

The true test comes next.

Does the prisoner exchange actually happen? Does the ceasefire get extended? Do both sides show restraint after the symbolic window closes? Does this become a process, or does it collapse into the usual accusations by Monday night?

We do not know yet.

But after years of grim headlines, even a partial pause is something. It is not victory. It is not peace. But it may be the first crack of light through a very dark door.

And if the Trump administration helped pry that door open, even a little, it deserves credit for doing so.

(Contributing writer, Brooke Bell)